Prospects and forecasts for the development of strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and China. Impact on the Middle Corridor

The official visit of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, to China on April 23, 2025, became a turning point in bilateral relations. The signing of the Joint Statement on the Establishment of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership laid the foundation for a qualitatively new stage of cooperation between Baku and Beijing.

Let’s assess the key areas of development of this partnership and make forecasts for the coming years, based on the official agreements.

Development of the Middle Corridor and Strengthening Azerbaijan’s Role in Global Logistics and Trade

The signed agreements, as well as the political arrangements, lay the groundwork for significant expansion of infrastructure, logistical capabilities, and trade along the Middle Corridor.

Azerbaijan holds a strategic position on the Middle Corridor—a route connecting China and Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. Within the framework of the “Belt and Road” initiative, the country aims to maximize its transit advantage.

In the next 5–10 years, we can expect:

• An increase in transit cargoes through the Baku International Sea Trade Port and the Alat Free Economic Zone. These facilities are becoming centers of multimodal logistics for containerized, bulk, and dry cargoes. Azerbaijani ports will receive additional investments in the development of logistics terminals, cargo handling complexes, and the digitalization of services.
• Modernization of railway infrastructure, especially the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars line, which will increase the capacity of the route and speed up the delivery of goods between China and Europe.
• Active participation of Chinese investors in the construction of new logistics centers, warehouses, and multimodal terminals in Azerbaijan.
• The environmental trend. The Middle Corridor will become an important part of Eurasian “green logistics”. Emphasis will be placed on multimodal transport with a low carbon footprint, the use of electrified railways, and renewable energy sources at terminals.
• Road and multimodal transport routes. Azerbaijan and its partners in Central Asia are actively developing road and multimodal routes connecting key transport hubs. It is important that Azerbaijan is strengthening its connections with Turkey and other countries in the region to create a unified network of roads and bridges that supports the transit of goods between the East and West.

Growth of Chinese Investments in Azerbaijan’s Energy Sector

Azerbaijan is actively developing green energy, striving for sustainable growth and diversification of its energy balance. China sees new opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation in this area.

Key directions:

• Joint projects in the field of renewable energy sources, including the construction of solar, wind, and small hydropower plants.
• The possible creation of joint ventures for the production of renewable energy equipment (solar panels, battery systems, energy converters) in Azerbaijan.
• Modernization of the oil and gas infrastructure using advanced Chinese technologies.

Significant Expansion of Trade and Economic Cooperation

Economic cooperation is moving to a new level with an emphasis on industrialization, agriculture, and the digital economy.

Within the framework of the signed agreements, the parties plan to:

• Deepen cooperation in industrial production—e.g., creating industrial parks for the joint production of goods.
• Develop trade in agricultural products: export of Azerbaijani wine, fruits, and vegetables to China.
• Expand e-commerce, including using Chinese platforms for direct sales of Azerbaijani products to Chinese consumers.

Intensification of Humanitarian Cooperation

The importance of cultural and educational ties is becoming one of the foundations of long-term partnership.

Key initiatives:

• The opening of cultural centers of China in Baku and Azerbaijan in Beijing, aimed at promoting the language, traditions, and art of both countries.
• Increased student exchange programs, with more opportunities for Azerbaijanis to study in Chinese universities.
• Growth in tourist flow through the establishment of new direct air routes between major cities, including the Baku-Beijing line.

Joint Participation in International Initiatives

The countries aim to strengthen coordination on global platforms and develop joint positions on pressing issues. Azerbaijan and China will:

• Coordinate their positions on international platforms (UN, SCO, BRICS+).
• Develop cooperation in new technologies, including cybersecurity, the digital economy, and “smart city” projects.
• Jointly promote ideas of sustainable development, including through ecological diplomacy programs.

Conclusion

The partnership between Azerbaijan and China is transitioning to a stage of deeper, multi-level integration, covering key areas from transport and energy to culture and technology.

The long-term forecast suggests that by 2030, bilateral relations will become an example of effective and balanced cooperation between a major world power and an important regional center of Eurasia, based on mutual interests and strategic trust.

The development of the Middle Corridor represents an important strategic initiative that will actively evolve in the coming years.

Investments in infrastructure, modernization of transport networks, improvement of customs procedures, and strengthening economic and political ties between the countries of the region will ensure its steady growth. Azerbaijan and China will continue to strengthen their cooperation, making the Middle Corridor not only an important economic route but also a key element of global logistics and trade.